Not to brag, but I’ve accurately predicted the College Football Playoff field every season since it was created.
How, you ask? Well, the Playoff Eliminator is a data-driven method of predicting the Playoff that has correctly predicted the Playoff every year since its inception. It’s a set of rules that goes like this:
The four Playoff seeds will consist of, in order:
- Undefeated Power 5 (P5) conference champs + Notre Dame (ND)
- One-loss P5 conference champions
- One-loss P5 teams + ND
- Undefeated Group of 5 + Independent teams
Given past years, two losses automatically eliminates any P5 team (or Notre Dame) from Playoff contention, and one loss eliminates any other team from Playoff contention.
As of right now, here’s how the Eliminator sees things.
SAFE (Undef P5/ND)
- Georgia
BUBBLE (1-loss P5/ND + Undef G5/Ind)
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Oklahoma State
- Notre Dame
- Cincinnati
So what does this mean?
Georgia is in no matter what they do this Saturday.
Michigan is in with a win, and out with a loss. Same with Alabama and Oklahoma State.
Cincinnati needs to win, and then they need either Michigan, Alabama, or Oklahoma State to lose. If that happens, they’re in.
What about Notre Dame, you say? Well, they don’t play a conference title game. So they need any two other Bubble teams to lose, and they’re in.
If three or four Bubble teams lose, we have a scenario the likes of which has never been seen. At least one two-loss team, likely a conference champion, will make the Playoff. Given the matchups, I’d bet on Alabama, then Baylor, then Houston.
That’s your Playoff. Again, the likeliest configuration is as follows:
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Oklahoma State
- Cincinnati
What if multiple upsets occur? Well, that’s where the fun comes in. And you can follow me at @WatchingFB on Twitter for up-to-the-minute projections from the Playoff Eliminator next Saturday.